Regional and temporal evaluation of earthquake activity in tunceli province of Turkey: Standard normal deviate Z-test

Abstract

A statistical evaluation of earthquake activity for Tunceli province of Turkey was made by applying standard normal deviate Z-test. For this purpose, regional and temporal changes of the seismicity rate at the beginning of 2017 was analyzed by using ZMAP software.The data set is compiled from Bogaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute.There are 5462 events from September 21, 1970 to December 30, 2016 with magnitude larger than and equal to 1.1. Completeness magnitude is estimated as 2.8. Three regions indicating important quiescence anomaly were observed at the beginning of 2017.These anomalies are found centered at (a) 39.24°N-39.51°E (around city center, and between Ovacik and Pülümür), (b) 38.98°N-39.41°E (including Pertek) and (c) 38.96°N-39.78°E (region including Mazgirt).These quiescence anomalies are observed in the recent years and they start approximately at the years of 2012 and 2015.The regions in which seismic quiescence are found may be the possible areas for the future earthquakes and for this reason, special attention should be given to these regions. As an important result, the estimation of seismicity rate changes and detecting the precursory seismic quiescence can be used as an important tool in the assessment of earthquake potential. © 2017 European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers EAGE. All rights reserved.