Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

Abstract

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96A degrees N-40.69A degrees E (around AAYkale, Erzurum), 39.36A degrees N-39.74A degrees E (around OvacA +/- k, Tunceli), 39.02A degrees N-40.52A degrees E (including ElazA +/- AY and Bingol), and 38.45A degrees N-42.94A degrees E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 +/- 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as +/- 1.5 years. We have found that the M (W) = 6.0 ElazA +/- AY earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.