The impact of the Ukraine war on Russian military capabilities in the Arctic

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the two-year occupation of Ukraine on Russia’s military capabilities in the Arctic and analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s military capacity in this region. Using a methodology based on document analysis and SWOT analysis, the study aims to unravel the intricate interplay between the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s military aspirations in the Arctic and thereby improve our understanding of the military implications of these developments. The results of the study highlight a remarkable imbalance in Russia’s military capabilities in the vast Arctic region, which stretches across the western, central, and eastern sectors. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is acting as a catalyst, forcing Russia to strengthen its conventional forces and improve its military readiness in the immediate future. As a result, there is a discernible inclination to prioritize nuclear capabilities as part of Russia’s strategic calculus in the Arctic region. © 2024 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.