Total Electricity and Hydroelectric Energy Generation in Turkey: Projection and Comparison

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to forecast total electricity and hydroelectricity energy generation using historical electricity energy production data in order to determine the future level of electricity and hydroelectricity energy generation in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey's electricity energy sector was reviewed during the period of 1940-2005. The total electricity and hydroelectricity energy generation were then modelled using historical energy generation data as years with regression analysis. Additionally, the portion that hydroelectric energy generation of Turkey has within total electricity energy production and probable meeting capacity of Turkey's hydroelectric potential of its future total demand was determined. According to the results, it is deduced that hydropower energy will have portion of 13.6% within the total electricity energy generation in 2030. In addition, it is concluded that the whole of Turkey's technical and economical hydroelectric energy potential that is equal 129.9 billion kWh will be used in the year of 2102 if the current trend continues.